Friday's Fast Five: Keys For Buffs Vs. Arizona State
October 14, 2016 | Football, Neill Woelk
BOULDER — For the second week in a row, the Colorado Buffaloes will play a team they've never beaten.
They'll obviously be aiming for a different outcome this week. After watching their all-time record against USC slip to 0-11 last week, the 4-2 Buffs have a chance Saturday to get into the victory column against 5-1 Arizona State in a 6 p.m. Homecoming game at Folsom Field.
A win would not only end an 0-7 skid against the Sun Devils, but end a skid that has been decidedly one-sided. In those seven game, the closest the Buffs have come is a 14-point loss in Boulder (38-24) two years ago.
Overall, the Sun Devils have won by an average margin of roughly 42-15.
But as the Buffs have said all season — and as they've been able to prove up to this point — this is a different team.
In order to produce a different outcome, here are some keys to Saturday's game:
1. Run the rock. This isn't a game in which the Buffs have to rush for 200-plus yards (although it would be nice). But what they must do is establish a running game that is a viable threat, which will then open up the passing game.
Much has been made this week about the fact the Sun Devils are allowing more than 400 yards per game passing. True — but it's because they love to take risks on defense, and so far, that has produced a 5-1 record. Todd Graham's team brings blitzes from everywhere and mixes in a wide variety of stunts up front. It's made them one of the best teams in the nation in terms of tackles for loss — 44 thus far this year — and it has made life rough on opposing quarterbacks (ASU had five sacks in last weekend's 23-20 win over UCLA).
But while the Sun Devils have given up big yards in the air against just about everyone, the teams that have given them the most problems — including USC, which handed ASU its only loss — have also run the ball well.
If the Buffs can establish a running game, the Sun Devils will be forced to call off the dogs, at least to a degree. Get CU's backs to the second level and they'll pick up some big yards. That will also open up play-action possibilities for CU's quarterbacks, and may even give Sefo Liufau or Steven Montez opportunities to run themselves.
When the Buffs have run the ball well, their offense has clicked. CU has run for at least 240 yards four times and they are 4-0 in those games. In losses to Michigan and USC, they finished with less than 100 on the ground both times.
Meanwhile, in its only loss this year, ASU gave up 157 yards rushing to USC — not a huge number, but enough to keep the Sun Devils defense honest.
2. Force Arizona State to throw. The Sun Devils have two big, quality running backs in Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage. Richard is the workhorse, having already carried 112 times for 436 yards and two touchdowns. Ballage — who scored eight touchdowns in ASU's 68-55 win over Texas Tech earlier this year — is the bigger breakaway threat, with 61 carries for 310 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing and receiving.
But if the Buffs can contain the Sun Devils' running game, they'll force ASU to the air — which is not what ASU wants to do this week. Regular starting quarterback Manny Wilkins, who missed last week's game vs. UCLA, is still nursing a badly sprained ankle, and the backup who helped ASU to the win over the Bruins is out for the season with a foot injury.
ASU coaches hope Wilkins will be back, but even if he is, it's unlikely that he'll be at full speed. Forcing Wilkins to throw and move in the pocket will be exactly what the Buffs would like to accomplish — but they first have to contain the ASU run game.
3. Establish some offensive rhythm and tempo. This is directly related to establishing a running game, but even if they do that, the Buffs also need to pick up the pace offensively.
Last week against USC, it's one thing that was missing. Instead of keeping the Trojans on their heels, the Buffs gave USC enough time to set up and get their defense in order — and the Buffs also had a tough day in third-down conversions, a factor that kept USC's defense relatively fresh. One way to negate a blitz is to run plays quickly and prevent the defense from changing personnel, and you have to convert third downs to make that happen.
No matter who is at quarterback for the Buffs — Sefo Liufau or Steven Montez — the key will be getting the ball to receivers quickly, at least early. CU's wideouts have shown the ability to make plays in space and they'll need that opportunity against the Sun Devils.
One other plus — if the Buffs can establish a quick tempo, it might also open up the occasional deep ball, something that never happened against USC. CU's longest completion by a quarterback against the Trojans was a mere 22 yards. If they can hit a deep ball or two against ASU, they'll be in good shape.
4. Eliminate costly penalties. This hasn't been a big problem for the Colorado this season — in fact the Buffs are averaging just 41 yards in penalties per game, lowest in the Pac-12.
But yellow flags were an issue in the loss at USC, when CU had a promising drive in the first quarter cut short by penalties, keeping momentum on the Trojans' sidelines.
That's something they can't allow to happen against the Sun Devils. In a game that has a chance of being a back-and-forth nailbiter, every flag will be important. CU needs to be as mistake-free as possible in this regard.
5. Strike quickly. One constant in the series since CU joined the Pac-12 has been ASU's ability to build a big lead early.
Last year, the Sun Devils led 17-7 after one quarter and 24-7 early in the second. Two years ago, ASU led 17-0 early in the second.
The Buffs will likely have their biggest home crowd of the season in their corner Saturday, a raucous Homecoming gathering that will no doubt be ready to provide a home-field advantage at the first sign of good news.
Colorado needs to give them a dose of that in a hurry. Up until last week, when they were held scoreless in the first half, the Buffs had outscored opponents 85-17 in the first quarter. If they can jump on the Sun Devils quickly, it will go a long way in making it a successful evening.
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
