Colorado University Athletics
Brooks: Analyzing The South
August 01, 2009 | Football, B.G. Brooks
BOULDER - For at least three very good reasons, Mike Gundy's optimism can soar. For at least two very understandable reasons, he can't let it soar that much.
Gundy, Oklahoma State's fifth-year football coach, has three offensive players - quarterback Zac Robinson, tailback Kendall Hunter, receiver Dez Bryant - that any college coach in America might sacrifice his firstborn to have on his roster.
The presence of that threesome is enough to put the Cowboys in most preseason national Top 10s, heady environs for a football program bent on justifying the millions invested in it by oilman T. Boone Pickens.
But Gundy's ticket back to reality comes with a mere glance around the Big 12 Conference's South Division, specifically at the pair of heavyweights lined up ahead of him.
"Unfortunately, we're one of the few teams in the country that can be in the Top Ten in most polls and be third in our division," he said this week at the conference's preseason media days.
Texas and Oklahoma, or Oklahoma and Texas? Flip a coin. Until the final BCS standings are unveiled, the order really doesn't matter; they're both Top Five, even Top Three, teams.
But if Gundy and his Cowboys have the say in the South that's expected of them, Oklahoma State will spoil things for one or both of the Big Two.
Still, that's taller than a tall order.
As potent as OSU is on offense - the Robinson-Hunter-Bryant triumvirate accounted for 6,859 yards and 69 touchdowns last season - Texas and Oklahoma have players to match or trump those numbers.
Quarterbacks Colt McCoy (Texas) and Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) should trip to New York for the 2009 Heisman Trophy presentation - a junket both made last season.
Bradford brought home the prized bronze statuette, McCoy was the runner-up. But McCoy's team defeated Bradford's (45-35) in the annual Red River border bash in Dallas.
McCoy's 2008 numbers were staggering: 173.8 passing efficiency rating, 34 touchdown passes, 340 yards in total offense a game.
But aside from McCoy's NCAA-record 76.7 completion percentage, Bradford's numbers were even better: 180.8 passing efficiency rating, 50 touchdown passes, 340.5 yards in total offense a game.
Texas coach Mack Brown believes McCoy, who spent his summer baling hay at his grandfather's ranch near Brownwood, Texas, can be even better in 2009:
"I do think Colt can improve, just listening to him and watching him . . . I do not feel like he's come back and put so much pressure on himself.
"That was a concern I had . . . how do you beat being the best in the history of college football (in passing accuracy)? I think what he's doing is trying to look at things he feels like he can improve; instead of saying `I've got to do better than the best,' he's going back and looking at the little things."
Over in the Oklahoma camp, coach Bob Stoops is reciting from the same script, but using slightly different language:
"Well, it's going to be hard (for Bradford) to improve on those stats . . . In the end we're not always concerned about statistics; it's doing what you need to do and manage the game to win.
" . . . avoid turnovers, make the smart plays, be consistent like he has been and not force things. You know, remind him (he's) not Superman. (But) you don't need to remind Sam of that; he plays within the system."
Texas has beaten Oklahoma in three of their past four meetings, including the McCoy-engineered comeback win in 2008. But an untenable three-way tie in the South developed when OU defeated Texas Tech and Tech defeated Texas.
Using a controversial tie-breaking procedure (finally, the BCS standings), the Sooners were declared South champs, then pounded Missouri 62-21 in the conference championship game before losing to Florida in the BCS title game.
Figuring the 2008 scenario was too bizarre to reoccur, the Big 12 decided to hang with its tie-breaking procedures. Wise decision? Stay tuned.
Texas and Oklahoma are on their yearly South Division collision course, but Oklahoma State could inject a dash of chaos into the mix. Nothing would please Mike Gundy more.
SOUTH DIVISION
1. Texas
Coach: Mack Brown (12th season, 115-26; 201-100-1 career)
Last year: 12-1 overall, 7-1 Big 12, defeated Ohio State 24-21 in the Fiesta Bowl.
Stadium: Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (94,113)
Top returnees/2008 statistics: QB Colt McCoy (332-433 passing, 3,859 yards, 34 TDs, 8 INT; 136 carries, 561 yards, 11 TDs), WR/KR Jordan Shipley (89 catches, 1,060 yards, 11 TDs; 6 PR, 64 yards, TD; 11 KOR, 312 yards, TD), TB Vondrell McGee (88 carries, 376 yards, 4 TDs), TB Cody Johnson (76 carries, 338 yards, 12 TDs), DE Sergio Kindle (46 tackles, 36 solo, 13 tackles for loss, 10.5 QB sacks, 2 recovered fumbles), SS Earl Thomas (70 tackles, 51 solo, 2 INT), WLB Roddrick Muckelroy (102 tackles, 69 solo, 3.5 tackles for loss)
Pivotal game: Oct. 17 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)
Coach speak: "We still have some question marks. We have some youth on the defensive line. We still have question marks separating our running backs and trying to figure out how to do that." - Brown
Bottom line: The Longhorns can be good - really, really good. McCoy should be a bona fide Heisman Trophy finalist, and Shipley, ready to take advantage of a very uncommon sixth season, is as good a receiver/return guy as any in the college game. Brown's concerns about youth in the defensive line won't elicit much sympathy from his peers; no matter how many young defenders show up on the depth chart, they won't be second-tier players. Nobody will be crying for Mack Brown. Fans in the Rocky Mountains should go ahead and mark Sept. 12 on their calendars; Texas visits Wyoming that Saturday, and getting tickets shouldn't be a problem. You'll be seeing a legitimate BCS national championship contender.
2. Oklahoma
Coach: Bob Stoops (11th season, 109-24)
Last year: 12-2 overall, 7-1 Big 12, lost 24-14 to Florida in the BCS national title game.
Stadium: Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (82,112)
Top returnees/2008 statistics: QB Sam Bradford (328-483 passing, 4,720 yards, 50 TDs, 8 INT; 42 carries, 47 yards, 5 TDs), TE Jermaine Gresham (66 catches, 950 yards, 14 TDs), RB Chris Brown (217 carries, 1,220 yards, 20 TDs; 15 catches, 109 yards, 1 TD), RB DeMarco Murray (179 carries, 1,002 yards, 14 TDs; 31 catches, 395 yards, 4 TDs), OT Trent Williams, DT Gerald McCoy (30 tackles, 16 solo, 11 tackles for loss, 6.5 QB sacks, 1 INT), LB Travis Lewis (143 tackles, 70 solo, 11.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 QB sacks, 4 INT), LB Keenan Clayton (82 tackles, 57 solo, 10 tackles for loss, 4.5 QB sacks, 1 INT)
Pivotal game: Oct. 17 vs. Texas (Dallas)
Coach speak: n++n++n++Hopefully, we can be a game or two better (than 2008). You have to go back and earn all that. You have to get back with your team, get back on the field and start competing and working to see truly where you're at." - Stoops
Bottom line: Like the Longhorns, the Sooners are loaded. So what else is new? OU's biggest question mark hovers over a rebuilt offensive line that will need to run block for Brown and Murray as well as protect Bradford. Last season's O-line helped produce these stunning numbers: A 4,000-yard passer and two 1,000-yard rushers for the first time in college history. But there are plenty of big, top flight replacements for Stoops and his staff to peruse and plug in alongside the talented Williams. OU faces a fairly stiff non-conference schedule, opening at the new Cowboys Stadium on Sept. 5 against Brigham Young, meeting Tulsa in Norman, Okla., then traveling to Miami (FL). Idaho State visits Norman on Sept. 12 . . . say a prayer for the Bengals.
3. Oklahoma State
Coach: Mike Gundy (5th season, 27-23)
Last year: 9-4 overall, 5-3 Big 12, lost 42-31 to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl.
Stadium: Boone Pickens Stadium (48,000)
Top returnees/2008 statistics: QB Zac Robinson (204-314 passing, 3,064 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INT; 146 carries, 562 yards, 8 TDs), RB Kendall Hunter (241 carries, 1,555 yards, 16 TDs; 22 catches, 198 yards, 1 TD), WR Dez Bryant (87 catches, 1,480 yards, 19 TDs), LB Andre Sexton (100 tackles, 63 solo, 4 tackles for loss, 1.5 QB sacks, 1 INT), LB Orie Lemon (90 tackles, 54 solo, 4 tackles for loss), CB Perrish Cox (32 tackles, 24 solo, 2 INT), OT Russell Okung.
Pivotal game: Oct. 31 vs. Texas.
Coach speak: "To kind of sum it up, there's a lot of excitement right now in the state of Oklahoma and on campus in Stillwater for Oklahoma State football . . . we're thrilled about that and just looking forward to the season." - Gundy
Bottom line: The Cowboys have been pushing for national exposure, and this season they'll get it. Very early, in fact. They open at home against SEC power Georgia (Sept. 5). In conference play, OSU catches Texas and Texas Tech in Stillwater but travels to Oklahoma for the season-ending Bedlam game. A trap game could be the Cowboys' Oct. 24 visit to Baylor. But given Gundy's firepower, any team that defeats the Cowboys isn't likely to do it without scoring a bunch of poinits. OSU averaged 40.8 points a game last season and should at least reach that mark in 2009.
4. Baylor
Coach: Art Briles (2nd season, 4-8; 38-35 career)
Last year: 4-8 overall, 2-6 Big 12.
Stadium: Floyd Casey Stadium (50,000)
Top returnees/2008 statistics: QB Robert Griffin (160-267 passing, 2,091 yards, 15 TDs, 3 INT; 173 carries, 843 yards, 13 TDs), RB Jay Finley (149 carries, 865 yards, 7 TDs; 7 catches, 141 yards, 2 TDs), WR Kendall Wright (50 catches, 649 yards, 5 TDs; 29 carries, 175 yards, 1 TD), LB Joe Pawelek (128 tackles, 55 solo, 6 tackles for loss, 6 INT), FS Jordan Lake (97 tackles, 66 solo, 3 INT)
Pivotal game: Sept. 5 at Wake Forest.
Coach speak: "The next level for us is not just being on the outside of the ring looking in, but being in the arena and being somebody that's got to be dealt with on a daily basis." - Briles
Bottom line: In Griffin, Baylor has one of the conference's most exciting players. His presence alone is enough to make the Bears a bunch that opponents can't overlook. Toss in Pawelek, the league's leading tackler last season, and Lake, an all-conference selection, and Baylor has a strong defensive foundation. Briles' second Bears team could make measurable progress and not see it reflected in the W-L column; that's a testament to the difficulty of playing the heavyweights in the South. But if Baylor reaches six wins and bowl eligibility, it'll be the first time since 1994. Keep on keeping on.
5. Texas Tech
Coach: Mike Leach (10th season, 76-39)
Last year: 11-2 overall, 7-1 Big 12, lost 47-34 to Ole Miss in Cotton Bowl.
Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium (52,882)
Top returnees/2008 statistics: QB Taylor Potts (23-36 passing, 260 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), RB Baron Batch (113 carries, 758 yards, 7 TDs; 45 catches, 449 yards, 1 TD), WR Detron Lewis (76 catches, 913 yards, 3 TDs), LB Brian Duncan (95 tackles, 61 solo, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2 INT), LB Marlon Williams (72 tackles, 50 solo, 3.5 tackles for loss, 3 QB sacks)
Pivotal game: Nov. 14 at Oklahoma State.
Coach speak: "You know, it's a yearly ritual, honestly. So, yeah, there's some guys that are going to play that most people haven't heard of. But they've been around our place for a while, and we feel good about them. I think they're going to do well. I don't feel like there's a big letdown this year.'' - Leach
Bottom line: If form holds - and it always seems to in the case of Leach's QBs - Potts will light it up statistically in his first season in the spotlight. But let's be honest, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree were special players, perhaps a once-in-a-career pass/catch combo even for a coach like Leach. Although the 65-21 loss against Oklahoma and the 47-34 Cotton Bowl loss against Ole Miss don't suggest it, Tech improved defensively last season, finishing fifth in the league. The Red Raiders likely will have to be at least that good in this season's early going while Potts and the offense settle in. But if there's a time for slippage in Lubbock, this is it.
6. Texas A&M
Coach: Mike Sherman (2nd season, 4-8)
Last year: 4-8 overall, 2-6 Big 12.
Stadium: Kyle Field (82,600)
Top returnees/2008 statistics: QB Jerrod Johnson (194-326 passing, 2,435 yards, 21 TDs, 10 INT; 94 carries, 114 yards, 3 TDs), Cyrus Gray (75 carries, 363 yards, 1 TD; 10 catches, 60 yards), WR Jeff Fuller (50 catches, 630 yards, 9 TDs), SS Trent Hunter (65 tackles, 46 solo, 2 tackles for loss, 3 INT), CB Jordan Pugh (45 tackles, 21 solo, 4 tackles for loss), LB Von Miller (44 tackles, 25 solo, 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 QB sacks)
Pivotal game: Sept. 5 vs. New Mexico.
Coach speak: "I've got to admit I was very disappointed about last season and high expectations whenever you come in. However unrealistic at times they may be, they're still expectations. But, I've got to admit, I was never discouraged about last season." - Sherman
Bottom line: Aggieland doesn't take well to losing football, and you don't have to journey too far into the past to confirm it. But Sherman has a winning pedigree and nearly unmatched resources to turn things around. Doing it this season might be too much to ask, but A&M alums will ask it anyway. The Aggies finished last in the conference in 2008 in scoring defense (37.4 points a game) and rushing defense (219.2 yards a game) and 11th in total defense (461.9 yards a game). So it's evident where improvement must start this season. By the time A&M plays Arkansas (Oct. 3) at the new Cowboys Stadium, Aggies fans should have a handle on where their team is headed: the first three games are home contests against New Mexico, Utah State and Alabama-Birmingham. Going to Arlington 3-0 would make Sherman's life a little easier.
Contact: BG.Brooks@Colorado.EDU
