Woelk: 2016 Buffs Set Foundation For Future Success

BOULDER — There may be no more fluid moving target in sports than that of expectations.

They seldom remain the same. They grow in the preseason, are adjusted after a game or two, and continue to change as a season progresses. Success raises the bar and, of course, the opposite occurs when a team struggles.

The Colorado Buffaloes provided a textbook example of how expectations can grow almost exponentially in the course of just one season.

When the season began, expectations for a program that had not produced a winning record since 2005 and had not played in a bowl game since 2007 were relatively modest. Optimistic fans hoped for a winning record and, as a result, a bowl berth. Such hopes also included a handful of wins in Pac-12 play, a road win or two, and statistical improvement on both sides of the ball.

But as the season unfolded — beginning with a dominant win over rival Colorado State in the season opener — expectations grew. The Buffs clinched a bowl bid just two-thirds of the way into the season and along the way, erased losing streaks against a long list of Pac-12 opponents.

Hopes for "any" bowl bid turned into dreams of a Rose Bowl appearance. A winning season gave way to thoughts of a Pac-12 South title, then a Pac-12 championship. For a brief time, the most-optimistic of fans (and a few members of the media) even began calculating CU's chances of earning a berth in the College Football Playoffs.

Of course, expectations often have a way of exceeding reality. The Buffs hit a wall in their final two games, falling to Washington in the Pac-12 title game, then to Oklahoma State in the season-ending Alamo Bowl. Matched against a pair of top-10 teams — and with injuries coming at the worst possible moment — the Buffs struggled in their last two contests.

Still, in retrospect, Mike MacIntyre's Buffaloes exceeded expectations in virtually every regard when you consider where those expectations sat when the season began.

Numbers to remember from 2016:

— CU's 10-4 season was just the eighth 10-win season in Colorado history. The Buffs also became just one of 14 Power Five teams to win at least 10 games this season (USC could become the 15th with a win in Monday's Rose Bowl).

— CU's 8-1 Pac-12 record was not only CU's best conference finish since 2002 (7-1 in the Big 12), it also easily surpassed the total number of Pac-12 wins (five) the Buffs had produced in their first five years in the conference. It also quadrupled the total number of conference wins by the Buffs (two) in the first three years of the MacIntyre era.

— While the final rankings are not out, Colorado is virtually guaranteed of finishing in the nation's top 25 after reaching the top 10 late in the season. It will be CU's first top-25 finish since 2002, when the Buffs finished 20th in the AP poll (21st coaches).

— The Buffs produced their first win over a ranked team since 2009 with their win over No. 20 Washington State, then followed that with a win over No. 21 Utah, producing the first back-to-back wins over ranked teams since 2002.

— The Buffs played seven teams that earned bowl berths and compiled a 4-3 record against those teams.

— MacIntyre was a consensus pick for national coach of the year and the Buffs had 16 players on the All-Pac-12 team, including first-team linebacker Jimmie Gilbert and first-team special teams selection Ryan Moeller. In the previous five years, Colorado had just one first-team all-conference selection.

— The Buffs recorded the first Folsom Field sellout since 2008 when 52,301 attended the home finale vs. Utah, and averaged 46,609 attendance for six home games, the largest since 2011. CU's 18 percent attendance increase was also the largest improvement since the 1988-89 seasons, and was the second-largest jump among all 65 Power 5 schools.

It was indeed a year to remember, and will no doubt go down in CU annals as a special season. In no particular order, some of our favorite moments and memories:

One last nod to the senior class: Along with a handful of fifth-year seniors, a group of players who made up Mike MacIntyre's first recruiting class at Colorado earned their spot in CU history.

After three years of taking their lumps, this group never wavered. They entered the year vowing to leave a legacy of success and they did exactly that. They not only returned Colorado back to the winning side of the ledger and to a bowl game, they left a foundation of success that should serve the Buffs for years to come.

Their influence won't end with this season. Their work ethic, dedication and discipline set an example for younger players that should now be part of the program's fabric and culture. No doubt their success this year is a big part of their legacy, but the underpinnings for success that they leave in their wake will be equally important in the coming seasons.

Big plays, big games and turning points: The season started with a bang: a 44-7 win in Denver over rival Colorado State. Even the year's first touchdown was a harbinger of things to come when quarterback Sefo Liufau fumbled at the goal line, just short of the end zone. In years past, the ball may have bounced into the hands of the opponent. But this year, CU center Alex Kelley pounced on the ball for a touchdown, a signal that the tide had turned and the ball was ready to bounce in the Buffs' favor.

There were more big moments — plenty more. Even though the Buffs lost at No. 4 Michigan, they still proved they belonged when they took a 28-24 lead over the Wolverines in the third quarter, a game that was up for grabs until Liufau left with an injury.

But if there was one game that proved the tide had turned, it came a week later when the Buffs ended a long losing streak to Oregon by getting a win in Eugene. The win included a highlight-reel one-handed touchdown catch from Bryce Bobo, a game-clinching interception in the end zone from Ahkello Witherspoon and the first-ever 300-yard passing, 100-yard rushing performance by a Buff — from backup freshman quarterback Steven Montez, no less, a signal that CU's offense would be in good hands long after Liufau's graduation.

The milestones began to pile up. A home win over Arizona State began a six-game win streak that included a win at Stanford, a Thursday night victory over UCLA and the back-to-back wins over Washington State and Utah. After going winless against many Pac-12 teams since entering the league, the Buffs ended those skids on seemingly a weekly basis.

There were also a host of outstanding individual efforts on both sides of the ball. Liufau followed Montez by becoming the second 300-100 player in CU history, Phillip Lindsay hit 1,000 yards rushing and five different Buffs caught at least 30 passes, a CU record. On defense, safety Tedric Thompson tied CU's single-season record with seven interceptions, Gilbert finished with 10.5 sacks, senior linebacker Kenneth Olugbode was in on 130 tackles and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie had 60 tackles, four sacks, two forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and an interception.

Those are just a handful of statistical standouts in a season filled to the brim with superlatives.

But now, the question is what's next? How do MacIntyre's Buffs follow up this season and take the next step in the process?

Here are four areas to watch as the Buffs head into their postseason strength and conditioning workouts, spring ball (set to begin in February) and their summer workout programs:

1. Reloading on defense. This is a task that everyone knew would be formidable. The Buffs lose no less than eight seniors off a defense that was considered among the Pac-12's best, including three starters from a standout secondary — Awuzie, Witherspoon and Thompson. The Buffs must also replace three 300-pounders up front on the defensive line.

Also on Mike MacIntyre's plate will be the task of replacing defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt, who bolted for Oregon in December. It's a process MacIntyre will begin addressing in earnest over the next few weeks, and one that includes a variety of possibilities, as Leavitt also coached linebackers and MacIntyre will need someone to fill that bill.

MacIntyre has made it clear he will stay with CU's 3-4 scheme, something he believes is essential against the Pac-12's spread offenses. Interest from around the nation has been high, and the pool of coaches from which MacIntyre will be able to draw should produce an able replacement.

In terms of personnel, the Buffs do have a host of youngsters to fill the holes created by graduation, and they also signed some junior college help that should be able to contribute immediately.

There are some returning starters, including Rick Gamboa and Addison Gillam at linebacker and Afolabi Laguda at safety. They will be called upon to serve as cornerstones, not only from a playing standpoint but also in terms of leadership.

But more than anything, the Buffs believe they have reached the point that they are reloading instead of rebuilding. While it would be unrealistic to expect the Buffs to produce the same defensive numbers they did this year, the 2017 defense still has a chance to be very competitive.

2. Another step for the offense. When MacIntyre brought Darrin Chiaverini on board as an offensive co-coordinator, the expectation was that he would add an element of increased tempo and rhythm.

"Chev" didn't disappoint. He and fellow coordinator Brian Lindgren helped CU's offense take a big step forward by tailoring the attack to fit the skills of Liufau, utilizing more four-wide receiver sets and dramatically improving the running game.

The offense also took big strides thanks to the work of first-year offensive line coach Klayton Adams, who helped develop much more consistency in the trenches, while first-year running backs coach Darian Hagan did an excellent job with Lindsay and the rest of the backs. Instead of a committee approach, Hagan turned to Lindsay as the feature back and the results were overwhelmingly positive, as Lindsay improved almost weekly, particularly as a second-level runner in space and as a receiver (47 catches).

Now, CU's offense will be expected to improve again. CU loses just two starters — Kelley and Liufau — and the Buffs should be able to quickly reload at those positions.

One big key will be whether Adams can help the O-line take another big step forward. CU's improvement up front in 2016 was significant; if Adams can coax another such leap, it will go a long way in making CU's offense even more potent in 2017.

Also a key will be the continued development of CU's receivers. All four starters return, along with transfer Juwann Winfree and promising freshman Johnny Huntley III. Chiaverini helped the group develop outstanding consistency in 2016, turning potential into production. If the Buffs increase that production at the same rate again, it will mean a big year in the passing game.

That, of course, leaves quarterback, where Montez will step in with a clear lead in the competition for the starting spot. Lindgren did an excellent job with Liufau over the years, and it will be interesting to see how he tweaks the attack to take advantage of Montez's special skill set. Montez has a great arm, can throw on the move and is also a capable runner with good speed. The Buffs will no doubt adjust their scheme to fit those skills and CU could have a much more wide-open attack a year from now, one that could give Montez a run-pass option in space that would allow him the opportunity to create on his own.

Overall, next year's script could be flipped to a degree. In 2016, CU leaned on its defense when the offense sputtered. Next year, it seems more likely the Buffs will be required to simply outscore opponents more often while a young defense finds its footing.

3. Offseason conditioning. Maybe the biggest strides overall made by the Buffs happened in the weightroom and in conditioning drills. CU's young players grew up and the difference was visible throughout the season. It was yet another area where a coaching staff change made a difference, as Drew Wilson brought a new approach to CU's strength and conditioning and the players responded.

But if the last two games proved anything, it's that the Buffs need to take another big step in those areas. The Buffs closed the gap dramatically this year; to take the next step, they'll need to have another outstanding offseason in strength and conditioning.

One area in particular to watch will be in the trenches, especially the offensive line. If the Buffs can add more strength and size up front to the experience they gained this year, it could dramatically improve CU's consistency in both the run and passing game.

4. Recruiting. The Buffs are poised to produce one of their highest-rated recruiting classes in at least a decade. They have already signed some quality JC players; their prospects for February's signing day look to be outstanding.

It is the result of a number of factors. When MacIntyre arrived, he took steps to improve CU's process and added personnel to help the process. CU has also taken great steps in improving its presence in the social media world — a key to today's recruiting — and the new Champions Center and this year's success have also greatly added to the process.

It is no doubt a key to Colorado's long-term success. If the Buffs are going to compete at the very highest level, they need quality players and quality depth. It begins with getting quality players into CU uniforms.

As MacIntyre is fond of saying, "You have to have the dudes to compete." The Buffs are taking big strides in that area, something that bodes well for the future.

Bottom line?

For starters, the Buffs won't be catching anyone by surprise a year from now. Their 8-1 run through the Pac-12 served notice that Colorado is once again a competitive program. They'll go into the season with a target on their backs.

But this is also now a program with players who not only know the preparation necessary to win, but also know how to win. They have prepared, they have been in close games — and they've won those games. In a year in which the stage grew bigger and the stakes grew larger on a weekly basis, the Buffs responded.

No doubt, the Buffs will greatly miss the senior class that produced the 2016 turnaround. But that class also left behind lessons that the next group of seniors should be able to put into practice. The foundation has been established.

The next step in the process is building on that foundation, and there's no reason to believe the Buffs are not poised to do just that.

Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu