Friday's Fast Five: Digging Into The Keys For Buffs Vs. Beavers
October 26, 2018 | Football, Neill Woelk
BOULDER — October has not been particularly kind to the Colorado Buffaloes.
After a 1-0 record in August and a 3-0 mark in September, the Buffs are just 1-2 in the 10th month of the year.
But they have a chance to finish October on a strong note Saturday, when they host Oregon State in a 1 p.m. game at Folsom Field, and thus set the stage for November. (And as we all know, "the games they remember are played in November.")
The 5-2 Buffs (2-2 Pac-12) have won three straight against the Beavers and are favored to make it four in a row. Oregon State has struggled to a 1-6 record under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith, in particular on defense. The Beavers are yielding 47.3 points per game this year, last in the Pac-12 and 127th in the nation.
But offensively, with former CU assistant coach Brian Lindgren as coordinator, the Beavers have been much more competitive. Oregon State is sixth in the Pac-12 in scoring, averaging 28 points per game, bolstered by a rushing attack that is third in the conference, averaging 195.1 yards per contest.
So what must the Buffs do in order to generate a little momentum for the November stretch run? Our weekly Fast Five keys:
1. Get the offense back on track. After averaging nearly 38 points per game in their 5-0 start, the Buffs have hit a rough patch recently, managing just 20 points against USC and only 13 at Washington.
To get things turned around, they will need to establish a running game early against an OSU run defense that is giving up yards in big chunks — 274.6 yards per game, to be exact. The Beavers have been susceptible to the run around the edges, and Colorado will aim to get their running backs and receivers in space on the perimeter. If the Buffs can do that, that will in turn open up the passing game for Steven Montez and Colorado's receivers.
Colorado has had trouble recently generating big plays in the passing game — just one pass play of more than 20 yards in each of the last two games. The Buffs need to rediscover their downfield game. If they can generate that one-two balanced attack against the Beavers, they will be in good shape.
2. Stop the OSU run game. The Beavers have been very good on the ground. Â Freshman tailback Jermar Jefferson leads the Pac-12 in rushing, averaging 128.4 yards per game, and Artavis Pierce has 323 yards, including a 168-yard effort against Ohio State. Jefferson's status is up in the air because of a quadriceps injury, but indications are he will be ready to go Saturday.
No matter who lines up in the backfield for OSU, the Buffs need to keep him under wraps. Thanks to solid play across the front seven, Colorado has been good against the run this year, giving up 146 yards per game. If CU's defensive line — in particular Javier Edwards, Mustafa Johnson and Israel Antwine — can stymie the Beavers at the line of scrimmage, it will force OSU to throw the ball.
Which brings us to …
3. Get pressure on Oregon State's quarterback. The Beavers are hurting at quarterback right now. Starter Conor Blount left last week's 49-7 loss to Cal with a concussion after a helmet-to-helmet hit, and backup Jake Luton was unavailable because of an ankle sprain. That left OSU with No. 3 Jack Colletto at the helm.
OSU has struggled with its passing game. Beavers QBs have thrown just eight touchdowns and four interceptions, and are averaging just 228 yards per game passing, 10th in the conference.
But the key stat for the Buffs is quarterback sacks. OSU has already allowed 30 quarterback sacks this season. It means the Buffs — who have tallied 17 sacks — will have the chance to get to whoever is behind center for Oregon State and cause some havoc. If they do that, it will give CU's offense plenty of opportunities.
4. Continue to win the turnover battle. At the risk of jinxing Colorado, we will still mention one of the more outstanding statistics this year: in seven games, the Buffs have lost just one fumble, and that came in the season opener.
Paired with just five interceptions, it means CU has given the ball away only six times, while at the same time producing 12 defensive takeaways (six fumble recoveries and six interceptions). That's good enough to be tied for the Pac-12 lead — and 14th in the nation — in turnover-to-takeaway differential.
But the key against the Beavers will be not only taking care of the ball offensively and taking it away defensively, Â but also generating points from those takeaways. The Buffs started out hot in that area, but have cooled off recently. Colorado couldn't capitalize on a pair of interceptions against USC, and came up with only three points off of an interception and fumble against Washington.
If the defense can create those opportunities against OSU — and the offense can capitalize — Colorado will be in good shape.
5. Generate some momentum for the stretch run. As noted earlier, October hasn't been kind to Colorado, and November is right around the corner.
The Buffs need to get their mojo back and play well in all three phases against the Beavers. If they can do that, they will head to Arizona next week with confidence and momentum, two commodities that always come in handy on the road.
Then, they will have a good chance to start the final month of the season off on the right foot.
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
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