Friday's Fast Five: Digging Into Keys For Buffs Vs. Bears
November 23, 2018 | Football, Neill Woelk
BERKELEY, Calif. — One game, one goal, one more opportunity.
The math has become very simple for the Colorado Buffaloes. At the end of a week that began with their head coach being dismissed, the 5-6 Buffs (2-6 Pac-12) will try one more time to earn an elusive sixth win and become bowl eligible. Their final opportunity comes Saturday at California Memorial Stadium, where they will face the Cal Bears (6-4, 3-4) in a 5 p.m. game.
No doubt, the removal of Mike MacIntyre as CU's head coach changed the atmosphere surrounding the Buffs during the week. But interim head coach Kurt Roper made it clear from the beginning that his only goal was to help Colorado become bowl eligible and thereby extend the season.
The circumstances are less than optimal. The Bears have been playing their best ball over the last month with three wins in four games, including victories over Washington and USC — two teams that beat Colorado. The Buffs, meanwhile, are still dealing with injuries, with at least two regulars on the defensive side of the ball, cornerback Delrick Abrams Jr. and safety Evan Worthington, listed as day-to-day.
But the Buffs do, at least, have reason to be confident. They had perhaps their best game of the year last season against Cal, a 44-28 win that saw CU's offense come alive.
They would love a similar performance Saturday, but it won't be easy. Cal's defense has been outstanding, especially over the last four games. The Bears have held their last four opponents to 100 yards or less on the ground, and five of their last six opponents under 180 yards passing.
What does Colorado need to do against the Bears to earn a sixth win and become bowl eligible? Our weekly Fast Five:
1. Put points on the board early. This may seem a little counterintuitive, given that Colorado has scored first in each of its last six games and lost all six. Meanwhile, the last two times the opponent scored first — UCLA and Arizona State — Colorado won.
But the Bears aren't an offensive juggernaut, having scored more than 20 points just once in their last six games. They beat Washington 12-10 without scoring an offensive touchdown, beat USC 15-14, and have averaged barely 13 points per game in their last three. If the Buffs can continue their trend of scoring first and make Cal come from behind, it will be a big step.
How do they do that?
2. Move the sticks by converting third downs. In their last six games, the Buffs have converted just 26 of 92 third-down tries, barely 28 percent.
Their biggest problem in that area? For the year, Colorado has faced 118 third downs of third-and-5 or longer, and converted just 31 of those (26 percent). When they see a much more manageable third-and-4 or shorter, they have converted 26 of 46 (56.5 percent).
The key is producing positive yardage on first and second downs. That not only means not giving up sacks or tackles for loss, but also making sure those short passes pick up at least some positive yardage. Patience, an efficient running game and good decisions will be a key.
The Bears are the Pac-12's second-best defense on third downs, allowing opponents to convert just 32.9 percent of their tries. If the Buffs are going to be successful on third down, they have to make sure first and second downs are productive.
3. Win the turnover battle. The Bears are not only good at forcing defensive takeaways — they lead the league in interceptions with 14 — they have also been good at converting those into points. In their last four games, they have turned five takeaways into four touchdowns and a field goal, including two interception returns for scores.
But the Bears have also given the ball away frequently, particularly through the air. Cal quarterbacks Chase Garbers and Brandon McIlwain have combined to throw just 13 touchdowns and a league-leading 13 interceptions this season. In three of Cal's four losses this year, the Bears have lost the turnover battle (and tied in the other loss). That includes four interceptions in a loss to Oregon, three against Arizona and two against UCLA and Washington State.
Those are opportunities the Buffs need to create, then take advantage of whenever the chance arises.
4. Limit long Cal offensive possessions. The Bears' goal is simple — hold the ball on offense by putting together time-consuming drives, shorten the game and then depend on the defense to win low-scoring games.
It means Colorado's defense has to force some three-and-outs. The Bears will do their best to eat up the clock by putting the ball in running back Patrick Laird's hands. Laird leads the team with 771 yards on the ground (McIwain is the second-leading rusher with 402), and Laird also leads the team in receptions with 43.
Cal doesn't have an explosive offense — the Bears have just four plays all season of 40 yards or longer. But they do eat up the clock and shorten the game. The Buffs can't let Cal control the clock and keep CU's offense off the field.
5. Play with abandon and play for themselves. To be brutally honest, the Buffs have nothing to lose in this one. A win extends their season; a loss sends them home for the holidays.
No doubt, after a 5-0 start, Colorado was looking for much more from this season. But a win against the Bears would not only salvage a chance at a winning season, it would give CU's young players something to hang their hat on (as well as give the seniors another bowl game).
As interim coach Kurt Roper made clear from the beginning of the week, this is about the players. The Buffs need to go out and play that way. If they do, they have a good chance of giving themselves something to remember — and one more game to boot.
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
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