Woelk: 10 Takeaways From Buffs Vs. Wildcats
November 04, 2018 | Football, Neill Woelk
BOULDER — It has now been approximately a month since Colorado began the pursuit of a sixth win and bowl eligibility.
It was, to say the least, a rough month. Mike MacIntyre's Buffs had their opportunities in every game in the stretch — including two games in which they had third-quarter leads — but were unable to seal the deal in any of those games.
Now, the team that was once 5-0 and ranked in the nation's top 20 has dropped four straight. It means the Buffs (5-4 overall, 2-4 Pac-12) have had seven chances in the last two seasons to clinch bowl eligibility, and have come up short each time.
Their next opportunity comes Saturday, when CU plays host to No. 10 Washington State (8-1, 5-1) in a 1:30 p.m. game at Folsom Field. (Fun note: Washington State coach Mike Leach is 0-3 all-time in Boulder as a head coach, including an 0-2 mark with Texas Tech and an 0-1 record with WSU. He also lost in Boulder as Oklahoma's offensive coordinator in 1999.)
But years past won't mean much Saturday. There are, however, are some things we learned from Friday night's 42-34 Colorado loss at Arizona, as well as from around the Pac-12. Our weekly 10 Takeaways, and what they might mean for Colorado's stretch run:
1. Injuries matter. This is not an excuse, but it is a fact: the Buffs have been hit hard by injuries, perhaps as much as any team in the conference.
This season, Colorado has lost at least 11 significant contributors for at least a game, and in many instances, several games. The list includes wide receivers Laviska Shenault Jr., Juwann Winfree and Jay MacIntyre; defensive lineman Jase Franke (out for season); linebacker Jacob Callier (out for season); cornerback Chris Miller (out for season); safety Evan Worthington; cornerback Delrick Abrams Jr.; and in a bizarre twist, three kickers/punters: Alex Kinney, James Stefanou and Evan Price.
The list could grow this week, as wide receiver K.D. Nixon suffered what was initially diagnosed as a hip injury, and his status for Saturday isn't known. (Nixon is CU's second-leading receiver. Shenault, despite missing three full games, is still Colorado's leader in catches, yards and touchdown receptions.)
Injuries are indeed a part of the game. Every team has them. But the Buffs — who believed depth was a strength when the season began — seem to have been hit extra hard.
Still, as head coach Mike MacIntyre said after the Arizona game: "It makes it extremely tough, but nobody cares. You have to find a way to win. We've got to find a way to win."
2. The Pac-12 continues to defy logic. In a week when Utah had a chance to establish control of the South, the Utes instead lost a 38-20 decision to Arizona State and their starting quarterback in the process. UU signal caller Tyler Huntley reportedly suffered a broken collarbone, meaning the Buffs will likely see freshman Jason Shelley when Utah visits Boulder on Nov. 17.
It leaves the Pac-12 South in a hot mess. Utah, USC and Arizona are tied for the division lead with 4-3 conference records while Arizona State (3-3), Colorado (2-4) and UCLA (2-4) are also still ostensibly in the mix. It means the division title almost certainly won't be decided until the final week — and it could very well mean a division champion with a 5-4 record.
ASU, a team Colorado beat 28-21 early in the year, is the one team that doesn't need any help from other teams to win the division. If the Sun Devils win out — UCLA, Oregon and Arizona — they will claim the South title.
As for the North, there is at least a clear leader in Washington State.The Cougars have three games left, but they could actually lose the next two and still clinch the division with a win over Washington in their Nov. 23 matchup.
3. Still searching for offensive identity. Five games into the season, the Buffs looked like a team that could support a multi-level passing game with a solid rushing attack.
But over the last four games, Colorado has struggled to put together a consistent run game, averaging just 117 yards per game in that stretch (and that number is inflated by a 75-yard Travon McMillian touchdown run against Oregon State).
Colorado had just 40 yards net rushing against Arizona (a 1.2-yard per carry average), a number hurt by the five sacks taken by quarterback Steven Montez. Still, even without the sack yardage, the Buffs would have barely crossed the 90-yard mark on the ground.
Those issues on the ground have a domino effect, beginning with …
4. Third-down conversions still an issue. After converting 43 percent of their third-down tries in the first five games (31-72), the Buffs have converted just 30 percent of their third-down attempts (20-66) in the last four.
Against Arizona, Colorado was 0-for-3 on third-down rushing tries and 6-for-12 on passing attempts. In games that hinge on one or two possessions, every one of those missed conversion attempts is big.
5. Defense doing its part in takeaways. After coming away even in the turnover-takeaway department against Arizona — each team had an interception and fumble recovery — the Buffs still lead the Pac-12 in turnover margin at plus-7 for the year.
Offensively, CU is doing a solid job in ball security. The Buffs have lost just two fumbles all year — best in the league — and Colorado's quarterbacks have thrown just six interceptions, tied for third-lowest in the league.
Defensively, CU has eight interceptions, fourth-best in the league, and recovered seven fumbles, tied for second-best. But the second part of the equation is equally important, which brings us to …
6. Missed opportunities are mounting. Friday's loss at Arizona is just the latest example of the Buffs walking away knowing they left points on the field.
Colorado had two first down situations inside the UA 15-yard line, and reaped just three points out of those trips. For the game, Colorado had two turnovers and a long punt return to the Arizona 14-yard line, but couldn't take full advantage.
In the last four games, CU has produced eight defensive takeaways that have yielded just 20 points (two touchdowns and two field goals).
7. Jump balls suddenly not going their way. While the numbers from UA quarterback Khalil Tate were outstanding against Colorado, truth is he threw up a half-dozen jump balls — and the Buffs came up empty on every one of them.
That is perhaps the most uncharacteristic trait of this Mike MacIntyre team. MacIntyre has produced some excellent DBs — especially at corner — over the years, and their troubles this year have been surprising.
There's no doubt WSU and Leach will do their best to exploit that trend next Saturday. Somehow, the Buffs have to figure out a way to knock down some of those balls and eliminate — or at least reduce — those big plays.
8. Youth providing some bright spots. Colorado's young linebackers continue to grow and improve. Sophomore ILB Nate Landman had another outstanding game, finishing with eight tackles and a fumble recovery and freshman OLB Carson Wells had his first two-sack game — not an easy task against Tate. Meanwhile, sophomore safety Derrion Rakestraw made his first start and collected his first interception and DL Terrance Lang came up with a couple of nice plays.
Offensively, freshman WR Jaylon Jackson had a career-high six catches, and freshman walkon kicker Tyler Francis greeted his first action with nerves of steel, going 4-for-4 on PATs and 2-for-2 on field goals, including a 48-yarder.
9. Late starts aren't worth it. Yes, the Pac-12 television contract allows for those 8:45 p.m. (Mountain time) kickoffs because the networks need games in those windows. It is money for the conference and its members.
But it also means almost nobody in two time zones (Eastern and Central) is watching, and the games extract an unnecessary toll on the visiting team. Those teams don't arrive home until the wee hours of the following day, which means virtually a lost day in terms of school work, injury rehabilitation and preparation for the following week.
Again, we realize there is money involved. But the guess here is that most schools would say those games aren't worth the price.
10. Confidence and accountability will be a key down the stretch. Yes, there's no doubt the Buffs' confidence has taken a hit — there is no way four straight losses could not have that effect.
But everyone in the CU locker room knows they have three games remaining, which means an opportunity to move the program forward. To do that, it will require coaches and players to hold themselves accountable in every respect.
For CU's seniors, it's a chance to leave a legacy. For the rest of the players, it's a chance not only to get back to a bowl game, but to also continue building a foundation for the future.
No doubt, the Buffs have put themselves in a tough place. Over the next three weeks, they will see maybe the best team in the conference, an always-physical Utah team, then a road game at Cal.
But if CU coaches and players can concentrate on the task at hand, the chance to finish strong is still there.
It will be a test for all involved.
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
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