With Pac-12 Tourney Seeds On The Line, Buffs Gear For Critical Three-Game Homestand
February 25, 2019 | Men's Basketball, Neill Woelk
BOULDER — A fourth-place Pac-12 finish for the Colorado men's basketball team is still not an impossibility — but last week's back-to-back losses in Washington no doubt lengthened the Buffs' odds considerably.
Currently in a three-way tie for seventh place in the conference standings, the Buffs (16-11 overall, 7-8 Pac-12) need to win their last three games to have any shot at a fourth-place finish and first-round bye in the Pac-12 tournament.
The good news is all three of their remaining games are at home against teams currently ahead of them in the conference standings. The homestand begins Saturday with a 4 p.m. matchup against Utah, followed by a March 7 game against UCLA (7 p.m.) and the March 9 regular season finale against USC (3 p.m.).
Some notes on the possible scenarios involving Colorado over the the final two weeks of the regular season:
— Washington (13-1 Pac-12) has already clinched a tie for the conference title, and needs to win just one of its final four games to become the regular season champion.
— The Buffs can't catch Arizona State (10-5) even if the Sun Devils lose their last three and Colorado wins out and both finish 10-8. The two split their regular-season series and ASU would hold the tiebreaker by virtue of a season split with Washington while Colorado lost two to the Huskies.
— The Buffs could catch Oregon State, currently third in the standings at 9-5, if the Buffs win out and OSU loses its last four. But if Oregon State gets to 10 wins, Colorado would lose a tiebreaker with the Beavers by virtue of OSU's win over the Buffs in their only meeting this year.
— Colorado can catch Utah (9-6) with a little help from the Los Angeles schools. If the Buffs win out and Utah loses its last three — at Colorado and at home against USC and UCLA — the Buffs would move past the Utes. If Colorado wins out and the Utes win one of their last three, it would likely come down to a convoluted tiebreaker that wouldn't be decided until the last weekend. If the Utes win at least two of their last three, the Buffs can't catch them.
— While USC (8-7) and UCLA (8-7) are a game ahead of CU in the standings, the Buffs can catch both of them by winning their last three. That would guarantee Colorado finishing ahead of the Los Angeles schools in a tiebreaking scenario, as the most wins either Los Angeles school could finish with would be 10, and the Buffs would own the tiebreaker with both by virtue of their season sweeps of the LA schools.
— Also still in the mix for a top-four finish are Arizona and Stanford, both 7-8. The Wildcats have the tougher path, with road games at the Oregon schools and a home matchup with Arizona State. The Cardinal, meanwhile, has three at home — Washington, Washington State and Cal. The Buffs would lose a tiebreaker with Stanford by virtue of the Cardinal's win over Colorado in their only meeting, while a tie with Arizona would come down to a more complicated scenario (records against other teams ahead of them in the standings). At 6-8, Oregon is still mathematically in the hunt for a 10-8 finish, but the Ducks would have to win their last four — Arizona schools at home and Washington schools on the road.
What it all means is that the final standings and seeds for the March 13-16 Pac-12 tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas almost certainly won't be decided until the final day of regular season play.
It also means — as the Buffs well know — that this final stretch of their regular season will be incredibly important to their postseason hopes.
CU's only hope of an NCAA Tournament berth is winning the Pac-12 tournament and the automatic bid that goes with it. But there are other goals also still within their grasp, including an NIT bid and a 20-win season.
One bright spot? Even if the Buffs don't end up with a top-four seed in the tournament, this might be the year that a No. 5, 6 or 7 seed isn't as tough as it normally might be because of the parity throughout the conference. CU head coach Tad Boyle — whose Buffs ran the tournament table with four straight wins in 2012 — said as much a couple of weeks ago.
"I would make the argument that it (a first-round bye) is probably not as important this year as it has been in years past because of the parity," Boyle said. "If somebody ran the table in Las Vegas, it would not be a shock to me, because a lot of teams are talented, and if they get hot at the right time, they could beat anybody."
Here's what those middle seeds could look like:
— A fifth-place seed in the tournament would give the Buffs a tournament opener against Cal, currently sitting at 5-22 overall and 0-15 in conference play. If the Buffs win that opener, it would set them up with a second-day game against the No. 4 seed, with a possible Friday semifinal matchup against the top seed (likely Washington).
— A No. 6 seed would match Colorado against No. 11 — likely Washington State — with a second-round tilt against No. 3 at stake.
— A No. 7 spot would put the Buffs up against No. 10 — currently Oregon, but Stanford or Arizona could drop into that spot — with a second-day game against the No. 2 seed on the line.
None of those matchups are overwhelmingly daunting. While Washington has been the clear class of the conference, everyone else has proven to be vulnerable — and on a neutral floor, that will only be magnified.
But for the Buffs, the only thing that matters is Saturday's game against the Utes. While they would no doubt love to head to Las Vegas with a little wind in their sails, the most important thing on their agenda is simply winning the next game. As Boyle is fond of saying, "You can't win two in a row if you don't win the first one."
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu