Woelk: Depth, Consistency Will Be Critical For Boyle's Buffs

BOULDER — After a favorable schedule to begin Pac-12 play, the road now gets a little tougher for the Colorado Buffaloes.

That's road as in seven of their last 11 regular season games in enemy gyms, beginning with this week's swing through Los Angeles. The Buffs play at UCLA on Thursday (9 p.m. MT, ESPN2), then head across town to the Galen Center on Saturday for a matchup with USC (8:30 p.m. MT, FS1).

The Buffs (16-4 overall, 5-2 Pac-12) will begin the trip just a half-game behind Oregon (17-4, 6-2) in the conference standings and tied with USC (16-4, 5-2).

"I'm not going to think about 7 of 11 on the road," CU coach Tad Boyle said after Saturday night's 76-62 win over Washington in Boulder. "I'm thinking about what we have to do to win the next game."

Still, Boyle knows that winning on the road is imperative if the Buffs are going to stay on the path of contending for a Pac-12 title, and it continues with this week's trip through SoCal — one the Buffs swept a year ago.

"The only way you compete for championships is to figure out a way to win on the road," Boyle said. "We've proven that we can do that, but we have to do it consistently. You don't have to win every game but with that Oregon State home loss, our margin for error slips a little bit. We have to make up for that with a couple of road wins, not just one. We got one against Arizona State. We're going to have to sweep somebody this season and maybe a couple of them to put ourselves in a position to compete for a championship."

Colorado's 16-4 record is the best 20-game start in Boyle's tenure, which also happens to be one of the most successful 10-year stretches in CU history. Here's what we learned about the Buffs in their recent home sweep of the Washington schools:

1. CU's quality depth will be critical in the weeks ahead. Before the season began, Boyle said more than once that this should be the deepest team he has had at CU. Last week was a perfect example. The Buffs beat Washington State without the services of Tyler Bey, who did not play because of an injury, then depended on that depth to come up big again in the win over Washington.

Against WSU, the Buffs more than made up for Bey's absence with strong rebounding across the board. Against Washington, Colorado's bench outscored the Huskies 25-4 as CU got solid minutes from reserves Lucas Siewert, Dallas Walton, Maddox Daniels and Daylen Kountz.

Each has been an important piece of the puzzle in recent weeks. Siewert has been a stalwart on both ends of the floor (a double-double vs. Washington State), Daniels is catching fire from 3-point range (9-for-16 in Pac-12 games) and Kountz is providing steady defense and some key rebounding. Their contributions have been critical.

As for Walton …

2. The sophomore big man will be a crucial factor down the stretch. After sitting out last year with an ACL tear — the third of his career — CU's 7-footer is steadily rounding back into form. He has taken his game up a notch in practice in recent weeks, and it showed Saturday vs. Washington, when he might have been CU's most effective post player against UW star freshman Isaiah Stewart.

Walton finished with seven points, two rebounds, a steal and a blocked shot in a season-high 13 minutes on the floor. His offensive post moves are returning to the form he displayed two years ago, and his rim-protecting defensive skills give CU another big weapon on the block.

But perhaps most importantly, Walton's confidence is growing. He still wears a knee brace, something he will do for the rest of the season, and that admittedly restricts his lateral movement to a degree. Still, his two dives to the floor for loose balls in Saturday's game were evidence that he's no longer hesitant to trust his knee and go to whatever lengths necessary to make a play.

In what proved to be a prescient moment, Boyle had this to say about Walton early last week:

"It's going to be a process for him. We're counting on him having two more years of eligibility .. He's going to have some really, really good games in a Buff uniform before it's all said and done, and I think that can happen this year."

Saturday's performance was just a glimpse of what Walton could bring to the table as the Buffs head into February, the month when title contenders begin to separate themselves from the pack. Having a 7-foot rim protector and offensive threat on the block will no doubt be a big boost for the Buffs in that area.

3. The Buffs are at their best when their guards are rebounding. Just last week, Boyle challenged point guard McKinley Wright IV to refocus on his rebounding.

Wright took the message to heart.

"That's who McKinley is," Boyle said. "I talked to McKinley about that last week about how he let that part of his game slip. The thing that's beautiful about McKinley Wright and why I love him so much is he looked me right in the eye and says, 'You're right, I'm gonna fix that'. And guess what, he went out and got six against Washington State and got eight tonight. He's a big time rebounder for a guy his size and we want him to continue to do that."

But Wright wasn't the only guard Boyle challenged to improve in that department, and he wasn't the only one to respond. Overall, CU's backcourt and wings combined to grab 22 rebounds against UW, a big reason the Buffs had a 40-31 edge over the Huskies on the boards.

It's an area that will be critical in February. CU's bigs are steady on the boards, but if the Buffs backcourt can make significant contributions on a nightly basis, it will mean an extra couple of wins.

4. CU is staying steady in the rankings that count. While the weekly Associated Press and coaches polls are fun for fans, those rankings have no bearing on NCAA Tournament seeding. Among the analytics that do matter are the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom rankings, ESPN's BPI rankings and the Sagarin rankings.

The Buffs are holding up well in those metrics. After Sunday's games, Colorado was 17th in the NET, 19th in the KenPom, 31st in the ESPN BPI and 25th in the Sagarin. Those rankings are the reason CU is currently being tabbed as a fifth seed by a number of "bracketologists" in their NCAA Tournament predictions.

Granted, it's early. Way too early to put much stock — if any — in those bracket predictions. But along with the computer metrics, they are an indication that the Buffs are poised to be a factor in the Pac-12 title chase and the NCAA Tournament if they can continue to play well.

5. CU's lineup might be greater than the sum of its individual parts, but consistency will be the key. There's no doubt the Buffs have some outstanding players. Wright and Tyler Bey are both All-Pac-12 selections.

But for the Buffs to be at their best, they need contributions across the board on a steady basis. Along with the key help off the bench that we already mentioned, the Buffs also need their starters — Wright, Bey, Schwartz, Evan Battey and Shane Gatling — to be consistent.

When they are, Colorado is a tough matchup for anyone. But it means they will continue to need efforts like they got from Gatling against Washington (nine points, team-high five assists and just one turnover). It means Battey must continue to be a physical presence on both ends of the floor and also bring his emotional edge, and it means Schwartz must continue to shoot well when needed, rebound at key moments and deliver solid defense.

If they can develop that consistency in February, they will be contenders in March.

6. The Pac-12 is wide open. As we mentioned earlier, there are three teams — Colorado, USC and Oregon — currently tied for the top spot in the league standings, with Stanford one game behind.

Oregon, a top-20 team all season, is a talented and veteran bunch that will almost certainly be in the mix down the stretch. USC seems to have found its footing with four wins in its last five games, and the only loss a double-overtime defeat at Oregon. Stanford, meanwhile, has come back to earth with back-to-back losses after starting conference play 4-0.

But it would be unwise to count out Arizona, even though the Wildcats have been wildly inconsistent. UA is just 3-3 in league play after dropping a 66-65 decision Saturday to rival Arizona State in a game the Wildcats led by 22. Still, they have a talented lineup, and if their youth gels down the stretch, they will be a tough matchup for anyone in late February and early March.

Thus, maybe the only thing we know for sure is that no one is safe on any given night in the conference, setting the stage for a wildly entertaining February.

Buckle up.

Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu