Takeaways From Buffs Vs. Kansas State
October 13, 2024 | Football, Neill Woelk
BOULDER — Deion "Coach Prime" Sanders' Colorado Buffaloes don't have time to wallow in the "what ifs" of Saturday's 31-28 loss to Kansas State.
No doubt CU let a golden opportunity slip through its fingers. The Buffs had a chance to knock off a nationally ranked team, remain unbeaten in Big 12 play and insert themselves squarely into the conversation as a conference title game contender.
But with six games remaining, the most important part of that equation is still on the table. If the Buffs want to remain in the hunt for a title game berth and possible playoff bid, next Saturday's 2 p.m. (MT) game at Arizona becomes the latest "most important game of the season."
Colorado no doubt has some areas to address in the wake of Saturday's defeat. CU battled back from a two-touchdown deficit to take the lead late in the fourth quarter, only to see Kansas State answer with a three-play, 84-yard scoring drive for what proved to be the winning touchdown with just 2:14 remaining in the game.
But instead of wasting time thinking about what could have been Saturday, the Buffs need to make sure they are prepared to make those things happen at Arizona.
Our weekly takeaways:
1. The Big 12 is still a wonderful hot mess of parity. Of the three teams still unbeaten in conference play with 3-0 records, two of them — Texas Tech and BYU — were picked to finish ninth and 13th in the preseason media poll. The third, Iowa State, was picked sixth.
Meanwhile, four of the teams picked to finish in the top five have losing conference records — Utah (1-2), Arizona (1-2), Oklahoma State (0-3) and Kansas (0-3).
The moral of the story is that anything can happen in the conference — and probably will. If the Buffs can bounce back and take care of business at Arizona, they will still be squarely in the picture.
2. But the margin for error has shrunk. The Buffs certainly can't afford to continue to make the mistakes that cost them Saturday. That includes letting a running back get wide open for a 34-yard pass play to help set up the winning score, a host of missed tackles, and another big kick return that helped set up a K-State field goal late in the third quarter (which proved to be the margin of victory).
Other areas of concern:
3. Offensive line has to develop more consistency. The good news is center Hank Zilinskas had his best overall Pro Football Focus grade of the year while grading out as CU's best overall lineman of the game. Freshman tackle Jordan Seaton, meanwhile, also had a standout 87.7 grade in pass protection.
But overall, the Buffs had a long night blocking for the run (no lineman over 70) while also giving up six quarterback sacks. That led to a school record in rushing yards futility (minus-29), with the longest run of the night a 13-yard scramble by quarterback Shedeur Sanders. CU's running backs finished with a grand total of 21 yards on the ground on 10 carries, with the longest rush a 4-yard burst from Isaiah Augustave.
One critical stat: Colorado averaged just 1.3 yards per carry on first down rushing attempts.
Those numbers simply have to improve. As the game wore on Saturday, the Wildcats bet that they could stop the run without extra help, leaving them additional defenders in the secondary.
The message is clear: when CU can produce at least the threat of a run game, it keeps defenses honest and opens up the passing game. But when the Buffs can't move the ball on the ground, it means Sanders can't find open receivers, which leads to sacks, which leads to far too many possessions with the Buffs behind the sticks.
4. Shedeur continues to be terrific, but … At least a couple of those sacks could have been avoided. After one particularly big loss to end a drive, he walked to the sidelines where Coach Prime had some choice words about his decision making.
"I played alright," Shedeur said after the game. "There were definitely some sacks I shouldn't have taken, definitely some reads I gotta make. Overall, we didn't get the result that we wanted. As the quarterback that's going to go on you."
Actually, he played much better than "alright." He completed 34 of 40 attempts for 388 yards and three touchdowns, but did have a very rare mistake when he overthrew a receiver, leading to an interception. He also put up those numbers without his two best receivers — Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr. — for the entire second half.
Overall, he played well enough for Colorado to win — if the Buffs could have made just a couple more plays in critical moments.
5. CU's run defense can't afford another night like Saturday. To be fair, the Buffs won't see too many more running backs like KSU's DJ Giddens. The Wildcats star gashed Colorado for 182 yards on 25 attempts, virtually carrying KSU on his back on a couple long scoring drives.
But the Buffs could have reduced that total with some better tackling in space and fewer arm tackle attempts. According to PFF, Giddens gained 121 yards after initial contact, a huge number.
There are still some good running backs ahead on CU's schedule. The Buffs need to make sure they don't give up more "free" yards to any of them.
6. Limit big plays. When push came to shove, the Wildcats produced the biggest plays of the night, in particular pass plays of 34 and 50 yards on their game-winning drive.
But KSU also had the overall edge in pass plays of at least 15 yards (four) and runs of at least 10 yards (nine). Colorado had nine of those pass plays but just one double-digit rush, with KSU holding a 283-231 edge in yardage on those plays.
As Saturday proved, those types of plays are backbreakers. CU has had its share of those big plays this year, but the Buffs defense has to limit those explosive moments — especially in critical situations.
7. CU's depth is proving to be critical. When Hunter and Horn went out with injuries Saturday, Colorado very nearly didn't miss a beat on offense. Omarion Miller delivered a big game — only to also leave with an injury, and his might be the most serious of the bunch.
CU is also showing good depth in other areas. Reserve defensive back Colton Hood came up with a huge interception while playing for Hunter and the Colorado rotation of edge rushers continues to be productive.
Meanwhile, even with the onslaught of injuries to the wide receivers, regulars LaJohntay Wester and Will Sheppard were on hand to deliver big moments.
Hopefully, CU will get some of those injured players back this week. But the silver lining is that Colorado has built some depth and that should continue to pay dividends over the last half of the season.
8. Buffs are still a team with confidence. Understand, there are no moral victories. As Shedeur said in his postgame press conference, "The statement is that we lost. You can't get that back."
But the Buffs also did enough things well Saturday against the No. 18 team in the country to know they are just a few plays away from being in that company.
Now they have to fix the mistakes that cost them the game Saturday and take that confidence with them to Arizona. If the Buffs can collect a key road win there, they will be right back in the Big 12 picture.
