Woelk: Buffs Must Find Consistency Down Stretch

BOULDER — Just a week ago, the Colorado Buffaloes were preparing for a two-game road trip and a chance to come home with at least a share of the Pac-12 lead.

Today, after losses at Oregon and Oregon State — their first two-game losing streak in conference play this year and only their second two-game losing streak of the season — the 17-7 Buffs find themselves tied for fifth in the conference standings.

As head coach Tad Boyle so aptly described it, “We're back in the muck. We're 6-5, we're a mediocre, average Pac-12 team.”

But, as Boyle also quickly noted, “Which this year is a pretty good team because our league's pretty darned good.”

Indeed, while tied for fifth is not where the Buffs wanted to be with seven games remaining, truth is they are still in good position to earn an NCAA Tournament berth. While their RPI did take a hit after the two straight losses, they're still comfortably in the top 30, and the Pac-12 is still among the nation's top-ranked conferences.

Still, with seven conference games remaining — four at home and three on the road — there's no doubt the Buffs' margin for error has been significantly reduced. They need to win all their remaining home games — beginning with Thursday's 8 p.m. matchup vs. Washington State — and figure out a way to corral at least one road win to finish 11-7. Given that four of CU's remaining games are against teams either ahead or tied with Colorado in the standings, five more wins might be enough to produce a top-four conference finish and a first-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament.

So what must the Buffs do to collect at least five more wins?

Some of the issues are painfully obvious. As Boyle noted after Saturday's loss to the Beavers, “You can't commit 24 turnovers and expect to win.” It's a problem the Buffs thought they had at least contained prior to the Oregon trip, as they'd committed just 30 in the previous three games combined. But in two games against the Ducks and Beavers, CU turned the ball over 38 times — and in both games, the opponent converted those miscues into 21 points.

Another issue Boyle called an “Achilles heel” has been the Buffs inability to corral a rebound after an opponent's missed free throw, particularly in clutch situations. It's considered one of the cardinal sins of basketball, and Colorado committed it at least twice in the loss to OSU.

The first led to a go-ahead bucket for the Beavers with just under seven minutes to play Saturday. The second gave OSU possession with 14 seconds remaining in the game. Had CU grabbed the rebound, the Buffs would have had possession while trailing by three — plenty enough time to get up a game-tying shot.

Those are the kinds of errors the Buffs can't afford to commit as they head down the home stretch of the conference schedule.

But what may have been lost in the cloud of disappointment of the back-to-back losses is the fact that despite the rash of turnovers vs. the Beavers, the Buffs actually did some good things in the second half. Good enough, anyway, that they almost overcame their highest turnover total since late in the 2009 season.

“The fact that we turned it over 24 times on the road and had a chance to win the game says a lot about this team's fight,” Boyle said. “It says a lot about their character and their toughness. But that's only going to take you so far.”

Indeed, the loss at OSU was an anomaly in many ways. It was the first time this year the Buffs have shot a better percentage from the field than their opponent (37.7 percent to 35.3 percent) and lost. They also held a commanding 47-29 edge on the boards. Aside from turnovers, the biggest difference was free throws: the Beavers were 18-for-27 while the Buffs were 11-for-17.

One of the bright individual spots in the game was the play of junior Tre'Shaun Fletcher, who may have played his best half of basketball in more than a year. Fletcher finished with 15 points — all in the second half — to go along with six rebounds, five of which he grabbed in the second half. Fletcher said he was inspired by a brief pep talk from Boyle earlier in the day.

“The message was, 'You've got to bring something to the table,'” Boyle said of the conversation. “He brought something to the table. Great energy, he played with toughness, played with aggressiveness. He wasn't scared. He didn't play a perfect game but he brought something to the table. Everybody's got to do that.”

And that points to perhaps the biggest missing piece in the Buffs' equation: consistency. If the Buffs are indeed going to put together a solid stretch run, they'll need consistent, solid performances from all nine players in the rotation.

The pieces are there, from starters to the reserves.

Off the bench, sophomore big man Tory Miller continues to grow and improve on a weekly basis. Miller was the only player in the CU lineup who played at least 15 minutes and did not have a turnover vs. OSU, and he also added eight points, five rebounds and three blocks. Senior Xavier Talton is adding quality minutes defensively and an occasional offensive spark, and Fletcher's game vs. OSU is a solid sign.

But the Buffs can't have their starters take major steps back. After recording just 11 turnovers in CU's first 10 Pac-12 games, sophomore point guard Dominique Collier had eight against the Beavers. After averaging 15.3 points and 4.5 rebounds in conference play, George King had one points and two rebounds vs. OSU. Those are the kind of efforts the Buffs can't afford to have down the stretch.

Meanwhile, CU will also need Josh Fortune to snap out of his recent funk and Wesley Gordon to produce more of the 13-point, 11-rebound efforts he had against OSU and fewer — far fewer — of the two-point, four-rebound games he had two nights prior against Oregon.

And, they'll also obviously need a healthy Josh Scott — but they must play with the same energy and aggressiveness they displayed Saturday when Scott missed the second half with an ankle injury.

“I still believe in this team,” Boyle said Saturday. “We're not going to feel sorry for ourselves. We're not going to hang our heads. We're going to get back to work and we've got to fight and scratch and claw and figure out a way to win the next game.”

The bottom line is simple. The Buffs still have a terrific opportunity in front of them, a chance to be much better than an “average” Pac-12 team. Given the way the conference standings sit today, a top-two or top-three finish is still well within reach.

But that opportunity won't sit on the table and wait for them. Unless the Buffs use the recent road trip as a wake-up call, if they don't find a sense of urgency and combine it with some consistency, that opportunity will disappear in a hurry.

Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu