Woelk: Takeaways From Buffs Vs. USC

BOULDER — Mel Tucker's baseline rules for winning a football game are not complicated.

The Colorado Buffaloes head coach has some simple, fundamental truths about the game: run the ball effectively, win the turnover battle, convert third downs, score in the red zone, don't give up big plays on defense and keep penalties to a minimum.

When the Buffaloes have done those things this year, they have given themselves a chance to win. When they have not, the results have been predictable.

But what is becoming more and more apparent is that in their close games — win or lose — turnover margin and/or penalties have been the difference. Friday night's 35-31 loss to USC simply emphasized the point.

In the loss to the Trojans, the Buffs had a slight edge in total yardage (520-518, including a 196-112 edge in rushing), were efficient in the red zone (three touchdowns and a field goal in four trips) and won the turnover battle (but just barely).

But, as Tucker pointed out after the game, "When you get 13 penalties for over 100 yards it is really hard to win."

Indeed, it was another case of self-inflicted wounds coming at critical moments, which has been the case in three of CU's losses — one in overtime, another by five points and another by four.

Thus, our takeaways from Friday night's game, with a little more big-picture emphasis:

1. Colorado's run game continues to improve. CU is now fourth in the conference in Pac-12 play in rushing, averaging 168 yards per game on the ground. The Buffs have improved their rushing numbers every week in league games and they are averaging a respectable 4.5 yards per carry in that span.

That's not just a good sign for the remainder of the season, it is a long-term positive. Tucker wants to establish a physical, hard-nosed culture in his program, and there's no better way to do that on offense than run the ball with authority. The Buffs are getting there, and it will be an attitude that carries over into coming seasons.

2. Yellow flags are devastating. Tucker's theory is that some penalties are at least understandable — aggressive penalties. A bang-bang late hit (we would only ask that officials be consistent with those judgments), an up-in-the-air pass interference and even the occasional holding call can fall into that category.

But it is the discipline penalties — false starts, blatant holds, unsportsmanlike conduct and other easily avoidable infractions — that too often make the difference. We won't rehash every one of them from Friday, but there were more than enough to change the flow of the game.

The bottom line is this: after eight games, Colorado is averaging eight penalties per contest. Only nine teams in the country — out of 130 — are averaging more. That's a number the Buffs somehow, someway have to reduce.

3. Turnover margin is key. Tucker calls turnover margin one of the best statistical indicators when it comes to dissecting a game.

In six games this season, CU has been at least even or held an edge in turnovers, and the Buffs are 3-3 in those games, with the three losses all close contests: Air Force, Arizona and USC. In games in which the opponent has won the turnover battle, the Buffs have absorbed lopsided losses (Oregon and Washington State).

But for the Buffs, it's also the missed opportunities that are haunting them. While CU did win the turnover battle against USC, 1-0, they also left four golden opportunities for fumble recoveries and/or interceptions slip away. All four came on USC touchdown drives, and it doesn't take a math wizard to figure out what kind of difference even one of those would have made in a 35-31 game.

There's also a penalty twist that figures into this equation. In two close losses where the Buffs produced only a one-turnover edge — Arizona and USC — they also had huge penalty differentials (8-1 vs. Arizona, 13-5 vs. USC). In both cases, either one more defensive takeaway or a reduction in penalties by 50 percent likely would have changed the outcome.

4. CU's defensive game plan/scheme gave the Buffs every chance to win against USC. Credit to D-coordinator Tyson Summers here.

Colorado coaches know they are playing with all kinds of youngsters on a defense that has been hit hard by injuries. They know opponents are trying to take advantage of that inexperience every chance they get.

But the Buffs' game plan against USC — bringing pressure from just about every spot imaginable on the field and doing their best to keep the Trojans in front of them and reduce explosive plays — came within a whisker of producing a win.

The Trojans did have their share of big plays. But they also had to put together some long drives — two of at least nine plays — which gave the Buffs a chance to produce some of those turnover opportunities. They brought pressure from the middle, the edge, the outside, off the corner — just about everywhere possible — and it led to a pair of quarterback sacks, four more hurries, four additional tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and an interception.

It was an aggressive approach that kept the Buffs in the game.

5. CU's offensive line is improving in pass protection and the run game. We've already talked about Colorado's steadily improving run game, and this group is (obviously) a big reason.

But the O-line also gave quarterback Steven Montez some time to throw, and the CU senior had a very solid night as a result. The only downside for the O-line is penalties. If they can clean that issue up, there's a chance for some success down the stretch.

6. Steven Montez is a tough kid who has some game. After two sub-par performances at Oregon and Washington State, CU's senior quarterback took a beating on social media. Calls for his benching hit fever pitch.

All Montez did was respond with an outstanding game against a talented defense. He stood tall in the pocket, extended plays when necessary and picked up some key yardage on called runs (a nice tweak to the game play from O-coordinator Jay Johnson, by the way). Montez finished with 369 yards total offense — 324 passing, 45 rushing — and had a role in all four of Colorado's touchdowns.

Montez knows the score when it comes to quarterbacks. His dad played the position in college and had a brief stint with the Oakland Raiders. Steven has seen and heard the criticism before.

"It comes with the position," he said. "If you don't want to be criticized, don't play quarterback. It's that simple. Take those criticisms. I mean get better from them, ignore them, whatever you want to do with them, but I've just got to come back and just play clean football."

Montez isn't perfect. He's still prone to gunslinger mistakes, especially when he tries to do too much on his own when the Buffs are struggling. But he's matured in his time in Colorado — and anyone who ever questioned his toughness or heart got their answer Friday.

7. Tucker's first recruiting class is already having an impact. In a perfect world, head coaches don't plan on using most true freshmen other than in mop-up duty. Most of the time, a redshirt is the chosen route.

But because of circumstances, Tucker is having to throw some of his newcomers into the fray and they continue to produce.

Friday, we saw true freshman corner K.J. Trujillo take another big step in his development. Matched against a trio of future NFL receivers, Trujillo held his own. He finished with six tackles, a sack, an interception, two big pass breakups and a quarterback hurry, all of which earned him a respectable 68.9 grade from Pro Football Focus.

Meanwhile, true freshman safety/star back Mark Perry had three tackles (one for loss) and a quarterback hurry with a PFF grade of 68.5, and junior college transfer linebacker Jamar Montgomery had a big sack and forced fumble in limited action. Also continuing to see playing time are young defensive linemen such as Na'im Rodman and Janaz Jordan; along with offensive lineman Casey Roddick.

Again, it's not ideal. But the experience they are gaining is invaluable and bodes well for the future.

8. The Buffs' ball security is outstanding. At the risk of jinxing the situation here, it's worth noting that CU has lost just two fumbles this year, and both have come on kickoff returns. Meanwhile, CU's tailbacks have 260 touches (runs and pass receptions) and have not lost a fumble. The USC game was CU's fourth in a row without a fumble — never mind a lost fumble — a Colorado record.

That's the kind of ball security that is a huge plus in crunch time.

9. Laviska Shenault Jr. is quietly having a good year. Thanks to injuries and an inordinate amount of attention from opposing defenses, CU's star wide receiver isn't putting up the numbers he did a year ago.

But he's still averaging nearly 74 yards per game receiving, and he has a PFF overall grade of 87.6 for the season. Shenault is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and he has nearly 300 yards after catch this season. Equally impressive are his yards after contact — 128 this season.

10. Tucker is indeed changing the culture. After two blowout losses on the road, expectations for the Buffs from the outside were — understandably — rather low. Predictions of a rapid spiral were plentiful.

But as Tucker continues to build this program, he's making it clear to his players that he expects them to play hard every game, every play — and they responded by playing a solid game against a quality opponent

Equally important is Tucker's demeanor. He doesn't show signs of panic or distress, chaos does not exist, he doesn't blame players and he doesn't make excuses. Through the ups and downs, he has maintained an even keel and a quiet sense of confidence, something his players sense and emulate.

Tucker knew the road in Boulder would be bumpy, but he hasn't wavered. That's an attitude his players appreciate, and the payoff will be a foundation built to withstand difficult situations.

Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu