Buffs Head Into Final Week Of Regular Season With Top-Four Finish Still Possible
March 04, 2019 | Men's Basketball, Neill Woelk
BOULDER — While the possible scenarios for the Colorado Buffaloes are still numerous when it comes to their Pac-12 tournament seeding, the Buffs know this much:
If they don't win their last two games, they can't finish in the top four in the final standings.
Thus, if the Buffs have any designs on gaining a first-round bye in the conference tournament — something they have never managed in their time in the Pac-12 — they need to collects home wins this week over UCLA on Thursday (7 p.m.) and USC on Saturday (3 p.m.).
As it stands today, the Buffs could finish anywhere from the third seed to the 10th seed. Currently 17-11 overall and 8-8 in the Pac-12, CU sits in a three-way tie for sixth place with USC and Oregon, but is just one game away from the three teams bunched up in a tie for third (Oregon State, Utah and UCLA).
Washington has clinched the No. 1 tourney seed and Arizona State has nailed down the No. 2 spot.
Given the middle-of-the-pack logjam, there are still myriad scenarios that could unfold over the final week. But the Buffs do know some possible outcomes.
— Colorado could climb as high as the third seed with two wins if Oregon State (9-7) loses two (Washington and Washington State) and Utah (9-7) loses to UCLA or USC. But if Oregon State wins at least one more game, the Buffs can't catch the Beavers in a two-way tie, as OSU would own the tie-breaker by virtue of a win in their only meeting this year.
— If the Buffs win two games and Utah loses to UCLA, the Buffs would own the tie-breaker over the Utes and Bruins. That would give the Buffs the fourth seed if Oregon State is No. 3. Colorado would also own the two-team tie-breaker over the Utes if they lose to USC.
— If Colorado wins two this week and Oregon wins a pair (Washington State and Washington), the Buffs still own the tie-breaker over the Ducks and would also own the tie-breaker against UCLA if the Bruins beat Utah for a 10th win.
— And, no matter what happens with the rest of the conference, if the Buffs win two this week, the worst they could finish is the fifth seed.
Of course, these are just a handful of the huge number of possible outcomes that could emerge this week. A CU split would probably drop the Buffs into the 6, 7 or 8 spot, Â and two losses could drop them as far as 10th.
The answer for the Buffs is simple. Control what they can control, and that begins with Thursday night's encounter with the talented Bruins. UCLA has won three in a row and four of its last five and also still has designs on a top-four finish.
To that end, the Buffs have been working on what they expect to see from the Bruins, a team they beat 84-73 in Los Angeles in early February.
"We work on zone offense and we work on guarding UCLA's actions," Boyle said. "We work on our ball screen defense, we work on our rotations, all the things we're going to have to do well on Thursday night to win."
One area in which Boyle wants his team to improve this week is rebounding. The Buffs lost the rebound battle in last weekend's win over Utah, only the second time this year CU has won a game while being out-rebounded.
"We're not offensive rebounding like we're capable of," Boyle said. "We've played against a lot of zones lately, we're going to play against a zone again on Thursday night and we have to be good offensive rebounders. The hardest thing in a zone is box-out responsibilities. When the shot goes up, we have to be pursuing the ball."
Boyle is particularly concerned about giving up offensive rebounds. Utah collected 12 offensive rebounds against Colorado, and finished with a 13-8 edge in second-chance points.
"On the other side, Utah kicked our tail on the boards," Boyle said. "We've got to box out and create space. If you get in a jumping contest with UCLA, you're going to lose. We have to get bodies on people and box out."
One thing Boyle said fans won't see from his team against UCLA is a tactic employed by USC last week, when the Trojans shot a mind-boggling 50 3-point tries and made just 19 in a loss to UCLA.
"We can't take 50 threes and expect to beat these guys," Boyle said. "We have to get the ball inside. We're going to take some threes, but they have to be a result of paint touches and putting some pressure on them at the rim."
But while the Buffs didn't shoot 50 3-pointers in their win over UCLA earlier this season, they did have an outstanding night from beyond the arc, hitting 13 of their 24 tries from long distance. That included a 7-for-9 night from Shane Gatling.
PARQUET UPDATE: Boyle said guard Eli Parquet, who suffered a knee injury last week in practice and missed the Utah game, is out "for a while." But, Boyle added, "I don't know what a while means. But he's not ready to practice yet. He's still got a lot of pain in the knee. It could have been a lot worse."
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
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