Colorado University Athletics
Fast Five: Buffs Need To Take Advantage Of 'Unknown Factor' At TCU
September 01, 2023 | Football, Neill Woelk
FORT WORTH, Texas — Deep down, Colorado's coaching staff couldn't help but smile a little this week.
Deion "Coach Prime" Sanders' Buffaloes are quite possibly one of the biggest unknowns in college football this year. Not only do the Buffs have an entirely new coaching staff — including coordinators who have installed new schemes on both sides of the ball — Colorado also has an almost entirely new roster.
Thus, they have been nearly impossible to scout for Saturday's 10 a.m. season opener at TCU (Fox), leaving the Horned Frogs staff to play what has amounted to a giant guessing game.
Frogs coach Sonny Dykes admitted earlier this week that he hasn't even bothered to watch film of last year's 38-13 win in Boulder. Virtually nothing from that game would be of any help to TCU.
Instead, the Frogs have been watching Kent State film to glean what they might see Saturday from coordinator Sean Lewis' offense. They have been watching Alabama film to hopefully get at least an idea of what they might expect from coordinator Charles Kelly's defense.
And they have also been watching as much film as possible on the transfers who could be significant players Saturday — a near-Herculean task, given that Colorado has nearly 70 new faces that arrived from other schools.
"I'm not completely sure we know exactly what we're preparing for," admitted TCU coach Sonny Dykes earlier this week. "You do the best you can to speculate and obviously to prepare based on what these coaches have done in the past. But you don't know what they're going to do with these players and you don't know how these guys fit their system or the adjustments they're going to make. We just have to be willing and able to adapt as the game goes along."
Granted, the edge is one Colorado won't hold for long. As the game progresses, both sides will get a better feel for what the other might do.
But that unknown factor can't be discounted — which brings us to 2023's first installment of the weekly Fast Five.
What Coach Prime's Buffs must do in order to kick off the Deion Sanders Era with a win:
1. Start fast. This much is no secret: the Buffs are excited about their offense, beginning with QB Shedeur Sanders and continuing through a talented and deep group of wide receivers and running backs. If the Buffs win the opening coin flip, don't be surprised to see them buck conventional wisdom and elect to take the ball right away.
Colorado needs to score early and put the Horned Frogs on their heels. TCU returns seven starters on defense, including four in the secondary (with former Buff safety Mark Perry in the group), as well as outstanding nose tackle Damonic Williams.
If the Buffs can crank up the tempo early, they will have the Frogs guessing. Colorado's offense isn't only geared to run fast, it is designed to utilize every weapon available — and CU is well-stocked in that regard.
That should give Colorado a chance to make TCU adapt on the fly and — hopefully — be a step behind for much of the game.
2. Take chances on defense. Again, the Horned Frogs have no idea what the Buffs might do on defense. They hope they've seen enough Alabama film to give them an idea of Kelly's thought process, but the reality is they have little more than an educated guess.
Kelly needs to flip the script early and show the Horned Frogs some schemes they can't be expecting. That means a healthy dose of blitzes and stunts from every angle and plenty of looks TCU quarterback Chandler Morris isn't anticipating.
If the Buffs can pull that off and keep Morris guessing, it could provide a couple of those critical, game-changing moments.
Which brings us to …
3. Win the turnover battle. Fun statistic: TCU last year lost 16 turnovers (eight fumbles and eight interceptions). Half of those turnovers — five interceptions and three fumbles — came in the Horned Frogs' last three games. TCU was 1-2 in those three games.
The Buffs need to force a couple of those mistakes, then take advantage offensively. That means hitting the Horned Frogs from every angle, beginning with constantly disrupting Morris in the pocket.
4. Stop the run. The Horned Frogs had some gaudy passing numbers last year, enough to put QB Max Duggan into the Heisman race down to the very end.
But they can also run the ball with authority, and it won't be a surprise to see them try to establish their own tempo with a punishing ground game. The Horned Frogs know Shedeur Sanders can't move the chains when he's on the sidelines, and they may try to pound the ball early to see if they can wilt Colorado's defense in the heat.
The Frogs have a solid one-two punch in the backfield in Emani Bailey and Trey Sanders. Bailey was seldom used last year, but averaged 8.1 yards per carry. Sanders, a transfer from Alabama, ran for 528 yards and three scores in his career there.
The Buffs can't afford to have their defense on the field for long stretches. With temperatures expected to be in the triple digits, along with high humidity, whoever can force some quick three-and-outs could have the edge when the game heads into the fourth quarter.
The Buffs need to be that team.
5. Play with abandon and confidence. The Buffs are heavy underdogs playing their first game under a new head coach on the road against a nationally ranked team.
That is the perfect scenario to take some chances, throw caution to the wind and do the unexpected at every possible opportunity.
No matter what the polls say, the Frogs no doubt remember their last game, a 65-7 drubbing at the hands of Georgia in the national championship game.
In fact, the Frogs lost two of their last three last year. If the Buffs can plant even the smallest seeds of doubt early — and gain some confidence and momentum on their own in the process — it could be a very successful trip to Big 12 territory.
